A Reuters survey revealed on Monday that South Korea’s exports are likely to have decreased in February for the fifth consecutive month due to sluggish shipments to China, while the rate of the loss would slow due to favorable calendar factors.
According to the consensus prediction of the 19 economists surveyed, outbound shipments should have declined 8.7% from a year earlier in February, which would be less than the 16.6% decline they experienced in January, which was their largest decline since May 2020.
Although it would be the second-slowest rate of decrease in the streak after 5.8% in October, it would bring their stretch of yearly losses to five straight months.
According to Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities, “Semiconductor exports are projected to continue their downward trend with dropping prices and slow demand, while exports to China decrease by a double-digit percentage despite anticipation for a boost in demand with its reopening.”
“South Korea’s exports are likely to post negative growth rates for the first half of this year, in keeping with the downturn in the global manufacturing cycle.”
Due to the Lunar New Year holiday falling in February of previous year, there were two more working days in February, bringing the total to 22, compared to 22. The date in this year was January.
South Korea shipped items worth 2.3% less in the first 20 days of this month than in the same period last year. Exports to China, South Korea’s largest commercial partner, fell by 22.7%, outpacing increases in shipments to the United States and the European Union.
According to the survey, the country’s imports likely increased by 4.0% in February from a year earlier after declining for two consecutive months in January and December, by 2.8% and 2.5%, respectively. This growth was likely distorted by the change in the Lunar New Year holiday.
South Korea is anticipated to report a combined trade deficit for the 12th consecutive month. Compared to the record-breaking $12.65 billion loss from the previous month, economists’ median projection for the current month was a deficit of $6.06 billion.
On March 1 at 9 a.m., complete monthly trade data will be released (0000 GMT).
Regarding factory output, experts predicted that seasonally adjusted production would have remained constant in January from December, when it had decreased by 2.9% from the previous month. On March 2, the statistics will be released.
According to the study, the median forecast is that the consumer price index for February would be announced on March 6 as being 5.1% higher than it was a year ago, a modest decrease from the survey’s prior finding of 5.2%.
