A stronger dollar drove gold prices downward on Monday as traders hedged their bets ahead of U.S. inflation data that might affect the Federal Reserve’s path toward raising interest rates.
As of 0500 GMT, spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,857.86 per ounce. Futures for U.S. gold decreased 0.3% to $1,868.90.
Although gold is frequently regarded as an inflation hedge, when interest rates are raised to combat inflation, the opportunity cost of owning gold increases.
According to Yeap Jun Rong, a market analyst at IG, “a firmer U.S. currency and rising Treasury yields continue to put gold prices under pressure as hopes of a sustained disinflation story are being questioned.”
Since the dollar index increased by 0.1%, buyers of bullion priced in other currencies will now pay more for it. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note was close to its highest point since January 6.
Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, predicted rate reduction in 2024 and predicted that the Fed’s policy rate would rise to somewhere above 5% and maintain there for some time.
Market participants now anticipate that the Fed’s target rate will reach its maximum in July at 5.188%.
According to Yeap, “a cautious tone for gold prices could persist in the run-up to the U.S. CPI report, as any upside risks to inflation could push back against recent dovish forecasts and prompt markets to reconsider the potential of higher-for-longer rates.”
According to a Reuters survey of economists, the data expected on Tuesday is anticipated to reveal that monthly consumer prices in the United States increased 0.4% from one month to the next in January.
In a note, analysts at ANZ warned that the recent repricing of market expectations surrounding Fed tightening “may generate a short-term headwind for (gold) prices.” “A fresh sell-off might confirm prices in the near term dropping below $1,800/oz.”
While palladium increased by 0.7% to $1,552.48 and spot silver declined by 0.8% to $21.83 per ounce, platinum fell by 0.7% to $938.24.