A recent poll indicates that Scottish voters prefer independence to remaining in the UK, but it also raises concerns about the de facto referendum process.
According to a YouGov poll of 1,090 people, 47% of respondents would prefer independence, while 42% would want to remain in the union.
Since a previous poll in October, support for independence has risen by 4%, while the No vote has decreased by three points.
Approximately 8% of voters were unsure, chose not to vote, or did not express a preference.
When these people were taken out of the equation, however, support for independence rose to 53%, compared to 47% for the union.
Holyrood is not permitted to organize a legitimate referendum without Westminster’s approval, the Supreme Court concluded last month.
Then, First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon declared that the upcoming general election will serve as a “de facto referendum,” with a majority of votes cast for parties that support independence being required.
The poll indicates that voters might be uncertain about that strategy, since support for the SNP in a general election is predicted to drop two points to 43%.
52% of respondents stated they did not believe a majority in favor of independence would be a mandate for a referendum, and 23% of SNP supporters shared this opinion.
The de facto referendum would be sufficient to leave the UK, according to 39% of respondents, while 9% were unsure.
However, 51% of respondents said the Scottish Parliament should have the authority to hold the vote, compared to 39% who disagreed and 10% who were unsure.
52% of voters opposed a referendum in 2023, 38% supported it, and 9% were undecided; nonetheless, 51% thought a vote should be held within the next five years.
The survey has the largest pro-independence response recorded by YouGov, according to polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University, matching a result last seen in August 2020.
“On this basis, simply voting ‘no’ on another ballot does not look like a feasible long-term strategy for retaining popular support for the union,” the speaker declared.
In the next election, which will take place before January 2025, his study projects the SNP will have 46 MPs in the Commons, a decrease of two.
Following surveys by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, Ipsos, and Find Out Now, this is the fourth survey on independence to show a lead for the Yes side.
